NHS latest: Hospitals on 'high alert' after new flu data released - as resident doctors' strike continues

That's all for now of our live coverage of the NHS as it faces the second day of a resident doctors' strike and record flu levels for this time of year.

We'll summarise some of the key points here, but scroll down to catch up in full.

Flu is up - but context is king

The headlines coming from today are that for the second week running, NHS England has seen record flu levels for this time of year.

This week, NHSE warned hospitals were on "high alert" and "we're not out the woods yet".

But, these toppling records require context.

Flu has hit earlier than usual this year, so while we are getting record high levels, we are comparing relatively later points in this year's wave to earlier points in flu waves in previous years.

Alongside that, there have been some positive signals in the data released today.

The UKHSA says flu is stabilising and its positivity rate is starting to decrease - but it warns flu could "bounce back" in the New Year.

Our data team has been crunching the numbers all day. Here are some of the highlights from data journalist Joely Santa Cruz.

Crucially, while flu is up, other viruses are down, with the overall virus burden only up 4.5% this year when compared to last year...

Here's how flu hospitalisations appear to be stabilising...

And here's a look at infection rates falling in every region too...

Alongside that, our health correspondent Ashish Joshi sums up the latest here...

Strike enters day two

All of this takes place against the backdrop of a second day of resident doctors' strikes.

One regional leader of the British Medical Association, the union behind the strikes, repeated calls for the government to come forward with a credible offer.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting, meanwhile, said:

"The BMA's regrettable decision to pursue strike action at this critical moment is piling on the pressure, but the NHS team has responded brilliantly to keep the show on the road. Our entire focus is on keeping patients safe through the strikes and this peak period for the NHS."

The strike will continue for three more days now.

The UKHSA says its latest figures (see our 14.04 post for more) offer "encouraging signs" with flu levels stabilising.

But the public health body is warning Britons to take care over Christmas, warning flu could "bounce back" in the New Year.

Dr Alex Allen, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, says that despite the positive signals in the data, "flu is notoriously unpredictable and can bounce back and peak a second time in the New Year".

He outlines simple steps people can take over the festive period to protect one another when mixing indoors:

• If you have flu or COVID symptoms minimise contact with others;
• Wash hands regularly with warm water and soap;
• Ensure indoor spaces are well ventilated,
• And if you do have symptoms and need to go out, consider wearing a mask.

Dr Allen also urges anyone still eligible for a vaccine who hasn't got one to take one.

Throughout the day we've been gathering some of your comments and thoughts on the ongoing resident doctors' strikes.

Here's some of what you've been saying:

Sqeezy99

Utterly selfish striking now after a huge pay rise.

Resident doctor

Does Streeting think calling tens of thousands of doctors 'juvenile delinquents' and 'moaning minnies' helped relations between doctors and himself? The BMA made up of NHS resident doctors. We are the BMA. Insulting the BMA, insults all of us - tens of thousands of us.

Lorraine

Just saying this is the wrong time of year to be striking ..so very wrong.

Sandy Cooke

Doctors KNOW what their salaries are going to be BEFORE they take on the profession. Striking is just greed. If they are not happy, they can just leave.

Another resident doctor

Streeting saying strikes were a "cynical attempt to wreck Christmas"... the general insults/ unaccountability contributed to me voting FOR the strikes. Him insinuating holidays were more important than our reasons for striking - which are in the publics best interest - just silly.

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Our health correspondent Ashish Joshi has just offered his latest analysis on the new UKHSA figures (see our 14.04 post for more).

He says that there are suggestions in the newest figures that things may be turning a corner and improving.

But he stresses that this "doesn't mean the worst is over".

Watch his analysis here...

More from our data team now.

They've been going through the latest UKHSA drop and found that infection rates have fallen in every region in England.

This includes the North of England - where infection rates continue to be highest.

It offers potentially good news regarding flu in England.

Check out the breakdown here...

A bit more to bring you now on the latest health figures from Scotland.

The number of deaths registered where flu was the underlying cause has more than doubled in Scotland.

Statistics released by the National Records of Scotland show 67 deaths were recorded last week where flu was the underlying cause, up from 30 the previous week.

The NRS figures show 76 death certificates mentioned flu in the latest week, up from 37 the previous week.

The statistics come as data from Public Health Scotland highlighted a sharp drop in the number of flu cases overall.

See our 11.16 post for more on the latest in Scotland.

We've just got fresh figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on flu and other respiratory illnesses.

It says that according to most indicators, flu activity is stabilising.

It is also circulating at medium levels, the UKHSA adds.

In their latest report, the public health body explains:

"Influenza positivity remained stable with a weekly mean positivity rate of 20.7% compared with 21.0% in the previous week. Influenza positivity started to decrease in the latest days of the week."

Just like positivity rates, the overall weekly hospital admission rate for flu remained stable at 10.32 per 100,000 compared with 10.19 per 100,000 in the previous week

Similarly, hospital admission rates for flu into intensive care and high dependency units were stable too.

Our data journalist Joely Santa Cruz has compared these latest figures to previous years. Check that out here...

And on COVID, the UKHSA says activity remained stable, with circulation at base levels, and for RSV, it adds that there were mixed trends and medium circulation levels.

Earlier today, our data team created a tool to let you check out flu rates where you are - go back and check out our 11.53 post for that.

Here's a bit more now on the breakdown of cases, taking a look at England by the NHS regions.

The number of flu patients in hospitals fell in the North West week on week - but has risen in every other region.

The North West figures (see above) are down 4% on the week prior.

The biggest week-on-week increase was in the South West, where figures are up 40% from 139 to 195 this week.

Eastern England isn't far behind with a 39% rise from 207 to 287 as well.

The South East saw a 33% rise; the North East and Yorkshire saw a 21% rise; London saw an 18% increase, and the Midlands saw a 13% increase.

This resident doctors' strike is the 14th since early 2023 over what the union has called an erosion of salaries due to inflation and concerns over a lack of training posts.

The new Labour government struck a pay deal with resident doctors in September 2024, halting strike action for nearly a year. Walkouts resumed in July this year.

The BMA said at the time:

"While this agreement marked the end of formal dispute process, resident doctors leaders were clear that it was merely a step forward rather than the end of the journey to full pay restoration."

Here's a recap of all strikes since early 2023:

So far, much of our focus today has been on the latest health and hospital performance figures coming out of England, Scotland and Wales.

But remember, the NHS is still facing a five-day resident doctors' strike. Today is day two.

Dr Haseena Wazir is the chair of the regional doctors' committee in South Thames for the British Medical Association - the union behind the strikes.

She's shared some of her thoughts on social media on the industrial action, and the government's response.

Dr Wazir says:

"Instead of briefing against doctors or scaremongering the public, Wes Streeting now needs to come forward with a genuinely credible offer; one that meaningfully tackles the jobs crisis, restores confidence in training, and one that continues us on a clear path towards pay restoration, not reverses it."

As a reminder: The government has been very critical of the strike. Streeting himself accused the BMA of having a "shocking disregard for patient safety".

Dr Wazir goes on to say that the message she received from resident doctors out striking was "one of unity and resolve".

She adds:

"Our asks are entirely reasonable. This is a dispute about jobs and pay after years of real terms pay erosion, rising competition for training posts, and growing job insecurity for doctors who simply want to progress and serve patients. It is not unreasonable to expect a government that claims to value the NHS workforce to address these issues seriously."

Paste BN has contacted the BMA for comment over the latest health and hospital performance figures.